What is the odds on this

[Linda564]

Does anyone know the odd's and if they have ever seen this please? I was playing a tourny in main, wow couldnt believe this hand. Blinds were 500/250 ,, my bb was 2 away,, 9 people at table & final table. I had pp Ts,I was the short stacked so I went all in with 1550, thought it was over for me when 4 players called.. one had pp As, one pp Ks, one pp Js, one had AQ suited, flop was 2 7 T, turn a 8 and riv a T,,(and of corse 3 of them are betting and raising after flop,, and 2 goes out.) what is the odds of all these pps in one hand ? And me catching quads? Went from last to first, I felt like I was a donk,, .. Did I do right by going all in? The whole game was very aggressive,

Any thoughts on this hand I sure would like to hear, im not sure but I was thinking before flop, and 4 players calling I had maybe a 15% chance of my pp Ts winning??????

[Insidestr8]

Very close on the odds, I think you were 13.25% chance to win depending on how suits overlapped etc. It's one of those hands that just plays itself, though I think the A-Q and J-J were pretty silly to put themselves all in depending on the order of betting. I don't think you had much of a choice with the pocket 10s, being short stacked and the blinds being so high.

On the feeling like a donk comment, I don't think you should feel that way at all. Some may feel that you donked out by catching the quads based on what the other hands were, but the way I look at it you have to look at the decision you made and whether that is right or not. You can't control the cards that come up and whether you hit, or miss, doesn't alter whether the decision you made was right or wrong. If I have AA and get outdrawn by someone that called my all in with KK I say good hand because they make the right call, if I get beat by someone that called with Q-3 then I don't say nice hand because they made a very bad play and just got lucky.

[codemaker]

Short stacked the odds pretty much dont come into play for me. When the blinds are about to put you out your only choice is to pick a hand you feel has a chance of hitting and go with it. I myself would prefer paint rather then a small pp as the odds are short stacked anyone with paint will try and put you out and going all in with a small pp likely will get out drawn, but as I said its not a donk play to go all in short stacked with any hand you feel is the best your going to have before the blinds eat you up.

[2eighty8]

Preflop: Aces is 44.1% to win; tens, 13.7%; kings 18.7%, a-q 6.9%; jacks 15.5%.
Turn: Tens 72.3%; aces 5%, kings 8.2% (???); a-q 3.4%, jacks 11.1%.

As for the rest, go to pokulator.com for the numbers. You have to use the flash software on that, and it hasn't worked for me for a year now. Maybe you'll have more luck with it.

As for whether it was a donkey move, no, it wasn't.

[Linda564]

Id sure like to thank you str8, coder and 288 for your replys. I sure feel better about the all in now. Well I was happy to win the $90.00, but it didnt feel right, but after your replys I would do the same again in the same spot.
So thanks so much.

[cglrcng]

I agree w/ the play of the pp10's...But when some here share "odds info" concerning internet poker...I tend to disagree.

Those "published odds" percentages are based on large strings of live poker that is actually live shuffled by living human hands and based on actual real money play (many/most people play differently when it is actual hard earned/and may be "very well be spent hard earned" money)...In internet poker (play money T's that is of course), you are not playing against (or with), that hard earned money and the computer card generators are nowhere near real live shuffling humans.

Play enough hands on each internet site and you will see/feel the differences and nuances to each card generator (not to mention the fact you neither know nor can see who you are actually playing against...though that is a very different set of issues that even more complicate the game).

I know what most here will say...."I play the same here as in a live game for real $$$"...No, you do not. It would be the rare person that would say that and would actually be telling the truth. You have only a bragging rights and points at stake is all...not hard earned cash ready to go up in smoke.

I still would have, short stacked of course, played that 10-10 easily all-in. Nothing to lose, and as you found out...everything to gain. Pick that big hand...and go w/ it when you are short stacked...It is all you have. Sometimes you win...sometimes you get your clock cleaned but if the blinds get you, then you are out anyway.

TP's card generator favors the bigger stacked though (many have figured that out and theorize it fully in open play often)....It is how the human element (the card generators computer programmer in cahoots w/ the powers that be at TP in this particular case), enters into the internet poker realm tilted it in favor of quicker tourneys for TP...The human element always creeps in in internet poker. The poker client rules actually do rule.

[Insidestr8]

Hi Cgl, I understand your point regarding real money versus play money. When I answer posts I usually assume that we are talking a real money situation and not a play money tourney since people are more likely to stay in a hand regardless of what they have. When we talk about the odds post flop, then you are usually dealing with a set number of people in the hand at that point regardless of whether its play money or not, so I think the odds of the respective hands winning would be accurate.

I agree that random card generators are not identical to human shuffling simply because they are different. I don't however buy into the assumption that random card generators (in general and TP in particular) favor the large stack. I've also heard it on occassion stated as fact that they favor "chasers" since they want to encourage donkeys to play more by rewarding them, and I've read how it is a known fact that TP favors Canadian account holders. Personally I don't buy into any of that and I do not let it effect how I play. I've seen so many sick beats in real life that I grit my teeth and deal with it when I get sucked out on online. I usually play tournies instead of ring games so I focus more on my stack size and where we are in a tournament then I do on pot odds. Personally I find that it comes in streaks and I've felt the sting of bad beats less on TP then on other sites.

I also don't mean to come across as a TP defender. I actually play less real money on TP then other sites but that is simply because of the lack of available games and tournaments on TP versus larger sites.

One last note, I'm often the small stack in tourneys and I do tend to work my way up the ladder so I don't feel disadvantaged by the possibility that a random card generator favoring big stacks. I find the best thing to do is tighten up to some degree, but then when you go with a hand you play it strong. If you take the hand down by making other hands fold before the river then you really take the random card generator out of play.

Just my thoughts...

[2eighty8]

CG, I have to disagree with you to a certain extent on the odds calculators. I see your point about the RNGs not being random and that it alters the odds. But what else do you have to go on? There will always be 52 cards in the deck, and the math is a constant. Regardless, I think it's still a good base to figure out your odds on whether to call or not. Of course, you can still throw in the "TP factor" to get a better feel for the situation.

That said, add another to the list. I find that whenever I take a rather long break from TP, the site tends to favour me more. Those two top five finishes last week (Tuesday & Thursday) were total flukes and even I didn't feel that I deserved to have made it that far. But str8 would argue that it's because I have taken the break that I feel more relaxed, which may be true. Either way, I invite someone to try doing that.

[Insidestr8]

Hey Abe, I won't argue at all that you're more relaxed. It's just that when I read the comments on TP factor, I've heard all of the following stated as some version of "fact".

1. The system favors the big stack.
2. The system favors the person that has not played in a while.
3. The system favors Canadians.
4. The system does a "TP" set-up where a great hand is set up to go against a better hand.
5. The oppostite of that were they system sets you up by giving you AA and then lets a weaker hand beat you.
6. The system favors chasers by letting them catch up and win so that more donkeys play.

Being a simple kind of guy, I tend to throw all the above out the window and not let it throw me off from playing what I think is good poker.

What I know are some facts and odds. For example, A-Q offsuite is only about a 60-40 favorite over K-4 suited. So that means the K-4 suited (which we all know is a horrible starting hand) will beat the A-Q off suite 2 out of 5 times if all the cards are allowed to come out to the river. That's quite a bit. So it tells me that with hands like A-Q I should be aggressive and not let it go to the river. If my opponent happens to call an all in there, he/she will beat me 2 out of 5 times and I've learned to deal with that and I seldom if ever complain about it at the tables. If they had a small stack they may well have been right in calling, though if I were them I'd rather call a strong raise with 6-4 suited then a K-4 suited, but that's another thread of conversation and debate.

[Aaaces]

Good thread
I enjoyed the reading.
I believe my comment have already been addressed