Calling a big pre-flop raise with a weak Ace.

[Insidestr8]

A question that I was recently asked was; How bad of a play is it to call a big (4x big blind) raise with A-6 off suite?

Let’s keep this question simple and not deal with where in the tournament this occurred, or what stack sizes were, but just what is the thought process behind calling a 4x pot raise with A-6. The first thing you should consider is what type of hand might make the 4x pre flop raise in the first place.

Likely it’s a strong hand making the raise. Maybe it’s a stronger Ace, such as A-K down to A-10, maybe a pocket pair higher then the 6 in your hand, or maybe it’s a smaller pocket pair. These are a wide range of hands and there’s a good chance that the person making that first raise has one of them. How do you think your A-6 stacks up against them?

Well, against a stronger Ace, your A-6 is dominated and you only about a 24% chance of winning the hand. That means, 3 out of 4 times you will lose that race. Against a pocket pair that is higher then your 6 (pocket 7’s or better) you are dominated again with only a 27% chance of winning the hand. Even against a baby pocket pair like pocket 4s, you are behind and only have a 44% chance of winning.

Ok, so its not a good idea to be in the hand. But if you did make that call, what happens on the flop?

Well I guess you want your Ace to hit. What are the odds of that happening? About half the time you say? Nope, the odds are about 13%, so roughly one out of 10 times. Even if you beat those odds and your ace hits, do you have a winner and are you then committed to the pot? The person making that original raise can have many Ace/something hands (A-7 or better) that have you totally dominated now. Will you keep calling on each street and have your stack bled down when you are so far behind?

What are you going to do the 87% of the time when your Ace doesn’t hit? Again you are dominated against any pocket pair. Worse, if the original raiser, or anyone else calling that raise, has over cards to your 6 (say K-Q, K-J), the flop likely contains some of those cards. Again, you would be dominated and all you have going for you at the moment is that Ace high. If someone bets, will you be calling with that Ace high? The odds of hitting that Ace on the turn are only about 7%. Not good huh? If you miss the Ace on the turn, will you again call a bet after the turn with only the Ace high with many over cards on the board? It’s a tough position to be in and one that you wouldn’t be facing if you would have just tossed the A-6 in the first place.

To me, calling a 4x raise with A-6 doesn’t make much sense and it likely sets you up for a hand that will drain your stack. Comments, questions and contrary opinions are always appreciated.

Str8